Ignacio Cosidó,
Director Centre for the Global Common Good
Donald Trump returned yesterday to the White House. Many European leaders observe the new American administration with horror. The threats of new tariffs and its disengagement from Europe's security provoke cold sweats among Brussels elites. There is a paralyzing fear of this second term, and everyone is awaiting the first decisions of the new presidency.
But the problem is not Trump, but us. We have not understood the change of era that is taking place, of which Trump is merely a consequence. A Europe increasingly irrelevant in the world, rapidly losing demographic, economic, and strategic weight. A stagnant economy, increasingly less competitive, that has given up on the technological race waged by major powers. A weak Europe incapable of defending itself, increasingly vulnerable to new Russian imperialism, and unwilling to act as a united strategic actor. Perhaps this second term of Trump will serve for us to wake up before the dream in which Europe lives turns into a nightmare.
Europe's security is defended today largely in Ukraine's trenches. It is certain that a victorious Russia will not stop at the Union's borders. It is better to try to stop Putin in Ukraine than to have to do so later in Poland. It does not seem that Trump's United States will come to save an indifferent Europe this time. A weak Union that will be divided and humiliated. Some will seek favor from the new master of the Continent. Those who resist will suffer his wrath. All of us run the risk of being submitted.
Are we still in time to avoid this nightmare? Yes, but the margin is very thin. If there is no rapid and decisive reaction, an exhausted Ukraine will fall into Putin's hands. Then will come the rest of the story. Does Europe have the capacity to save Ukraine and save itself? After decades of relying on the United States for our security during the Cold War and years of dismantling our armed forces seeking peace dividends, our capabilities are greatly diminished, but Europe still has the economic, industrial, and technological potential to defeat an aggressor like Russia who, despite its thousands of nuclear warheads, represents one-tenth of our GDP and less than half our population. The effort in any case should go far beyond NATO's 2% military spending requirement. Does Europe have the political will to defend itself? This is where I harbour the most doubts. With Macron weaker than ever, Germany in full electoral process, and the United Kingdom in free fall outside the Union, Europe lacks strong leadership. Only Poland and some Eastern countries seem aware of the existential threat hanging over them and the whole continent. Others seem to seek accommodation in sight of the new strategic situation by negotiating favourable treatment from the aggressor.
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